This commentary first appeared in Internationale Politik.

A few days after her inauguration, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock directed a clear message towards the government in Tehran. In view of the Iranian regime's stalling tactics in the resumed nuclear negotiations, and given continued violations of the existing nuclear agreement, the Islamic Republic had "gambled away trust on a massive scale."

Did this statement herald a change in Germany's Iran policy?

For Germany, which together with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council participated in the negotiations on a nuclear agreement with Iran that culminated in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015, Iran is undoubtedly one of the key security and foreign policy challenges. Even after the U.S. withdrew from the agreement in 2018, and despite Iran’s substantial violations of the JCPOA, Germany and its European partners, France and the United Kingdom, remained committed to the controversial agreement. New rounds of negotiations were finally scheduled in April 2021.

At the end of 2021, the new German federal government, comprised of the SPD, Greens and FDP, defined key issues regarding Iran in its coalition agreement: pushing for a speedy conclusion of negotiations and compliance with the obligations; urging improvement of the human rights situation; criticizing the threats against Israel, the missile program, the aggressive regional policy and the support of terrorist activities. With this clear statement and condemnation of the Mullah regime's policies even beyond the nuclear agreement, the coalition agreement takes an important position. What is now needed to translate this into concrete policy?

The 2015 nuclear agreement is outdated

The limits set in the JCPOA were geared toward civilian use, and Iran has repeatedly surpassed them with such measures as enriching uranium to 60 percent. This and other violations establish clear facts. These figures reveal how blatant the Iranian regime's efforts are, and how close it has already come to nuclear armament. In view of these flagrant violations, Germany and its partners should act decisively to halt the government in Tehran, because it has been allowed to cross one red line after the other undisturbed for too long. Due to the enormous progress of Iran's nuclear weapons program, a return to the original agreement is not a solution.

From the outset, the goal of the resumed talks should have been a new agreement that irrevocably blocks Iran's path to nuclear weapons. Under no circumstances should the agreement be made at the expense of concessions to Tehran and thus possibly fall behind the 2015 agreement. The German Federal Republic and its Western partners must take a much firmer stance. One option, which was established in the 2015 agreement, is to trigger the "snapback mechanism," which allows the reintroduction of international sanctions in the event of violations of the agreement. The agreement at the time demonstrated: The Iranian regime is only willing to negotiate when economic and political pressure force it to do so. Germany and its partners should be aware that they are in the driver's seat here.

The hopes attached to the JCPOA that talks with Iran would be possible about other offences have proven to be illusory. The disastrous human rights situation in Iran - including the persecution of ethnic and religious minorities as well as LGBTQIA+, the brutal repression of women, the suppression of any protests - should not be ignored by Germany in talks with the Mullah regime. Instead, Germany should work to strengthen the democratic opposition. The much-cited critical dialogue has undoubtedly failed.

Danger for Israel and Arab countries

Tehran is proceeding undeterred in its pursuit of regional hegemony – and it is succeeding. Instead of investing the money it received after the nuclear agreement (until the Trump administration implemented its "maximum pressure" strategy) in the economic development of the country, the regime is driving destabilization in the Middle East, the effects of which are also being felt in Europe. For example, it is investing in its ballistic missile program and thus in technology that is used not least to transport nuclear warheads. It is also exploiting power vacuums in the region by supporting, among others, Shiite militias in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is imperative that Germany address these issues.

Israel in particular is in existential danger in view of the threat of Iranian nuclear armament, because an integral part of the Iranian regime's ideology is eliminatory antisemitism. Destroying the Jewish state is the declared goal of the Tehran government, which provides military support for terrorist groups in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip - and thus directly on Israel's borders - also in order to strike back asymmetrically in the event of a pre-emptive Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities.

It should go without saying that this should be factored into Germany's Iran policy, since the new German government has reiterated the declaration that Israel's security is a matter of state concern. But the security interests of other states in the Middle East that are directly threatened by Iranian activities and attacks must also be taken into account. The recent rapprochements between Israel and Arab states within the framework of the Abraham Accords show how seriously the threat posed by Tehran is assessed on the ground, as they are also a result of these countries' shared perception of danger. Against this background, support for these rapprochement processes, which is also stipulated in the German government’s coalition agreement, is particularly important.

In view of the worsening situation, Germany should implement its Iran policy through concrete action. A new agreement with the Iranian regime at any price runs counter to this. The goal of German foreign policy must be to work with the U.S. and European partners to secure a stronger, more comprehensive and indefinite agreement that permanently rules out nuclear armament for Iran, curbs its aggressive regional activities and improves the situation for the people of Iran. To this end, the Iranian regime should be presented with unequivocal limits. In the event of violations, sanctions should be imposed in coordination with partners, including far-reaching ones if necessary. If necessary, this option should also be available for other key points mentioned in the coalition agreement. The position of Israel and other states in the Middle East must be fully integrated into this process.

Germany and its partners should be much more assertive in their negotiating position vis-à-vis the Iranian regime and no longer allow it to stall or push them around.

Annina Fichtner works as Senior Associate, Policy at the American Jewish Committee (AJC) in Berlin.